The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand

The objective of this research is to analyze the impact causal factors relationship over changes in future scenario management under sustainability policy Thailand by creating a model with validity called “Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Observed Variables (PLS Modeling-ARIMAx). results showed that three latent variables (economic, social, and environmental) were found be related. From PLS Modeling-ARIMAx (1,1,1), it characterized as best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) highest performance, where mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals 1.55%, root square (RMSE) 1.97% upon comparing them other models. If government implements define new stipulating total energy consumption (2020-2039) below national carrying capacity, minimal correction mechanism great relationship, CO2 emission expected drop growth rate continuously. When determined, was increase at only 8.95% (2020/2039) or 78.99 Mt Eq. (from 2020-2039) going capacity set off 90.05 2020-2039). result clearly different absence policy.